The Bank of England likely will lower interest rates for the first time in a 7-year stretch, predict economists. Sterling just released its numbers and noted a third monthly drop against the US dollar. This likely is tied to the EU and Britain’s move to leave, along with other information that may hamper consumer confidence. Together, these incidents each point to the Bank of England loosening their monetary policy.
According to a Bloomberg survey, of the 46 economists asked, just two disagreed that the interest rate will be cut. Most economists believe that some change will happen to ease the market, but the amount is up for debate. The pound fell by 0.3% this month to approximately $1.33, which is a fall of 9% in two months’ time. It also dropped to a 30-year low on July 6th. Experts project UK’s pound will end the year at its lowest since 1985 of $1.24.
Martin Weale, Bank of England policy committee member, stated that he fully supports any stimulus the bank tries. Traders are bracing themselves for the BOE to ease monetary policy next week. The Bank vote resulted at 8-1 to not make changes in July, which pushed the pound to reach its highest value in two weeks- against the dollar.
Hedge-fund sales head at Mizuho Bank Ltd. Neil Jones stated that the Bank of England may need to do more than what the market is forecasting to really have an impact on the market. He is suggesting a 50 basis point cut that includes a 50-billion pounds further via the QE model. A move this aggressive, according to Jones, would take the market beyond the expected result and provide the mix up need to truly start production. He admitted though that this would be in the “upper limits” of what should be expected.