The last trading day of 2016 saw analysts from Baird, Morgan Stanley, and Oppenheimer weigh in on the speculative future of Tesla’s stock performance in 2017 and the expected delivery of the Tesla 3 in early 2017 as promised by the company.

One documented death due to the inability of the automated guidance of the Tesla to distinguish between some cloudy sky conditions and white truck bodies produced a downturn in the value of Tesla’s stock and the expectations for the company in the future. A congressional investigation and changes in design avoided what many expected to be a death knell for the Tesla program.

The most bullish expectations for Tesla in 2017 predict a 57 percent increase in the price of Tesla stock by the end of 2017. Tesla stock closed down on December 30, 2017. The 9.7 percent increase in value for 2016 is actually a 50 percent growth from the February 2016 low precipitated by the accidental death reports.

The debate about the future profitability of Tesla and its stock centers on the promised delivery date of the Tesla 3 model in early 2017. The production of the Model 3 might be hampered by reliance on other companies to deliver components on time. Some analysts note that a $12.5 billion infusion of capital to increase the production capacity at the Tesla plant could produce a near term decrease in stock value.

Tesla has recovered from a potential legal catastrophe, initiated changes in design that promise no future accidents, increased production capacity well beyond present order levels, and reorganized management. There may be a near term faltering based on the cost of extraordinary sales efforts in the last quarter of 2016. Most experts expect a record growth for Tesla stock in 2017.

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